The true cost of stockouts—and how to prevent them

Overlooking the true cost of stockouts can severely hinder an organization. Even well-established MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) organizations often neglect comprehensive tracking of these costs, particularly lost sales. This article delves into methods for quantifying these costs, translating data into strategic actions, and highlighting why this often-ignored metric is essential for success.

Key takeaways

  • Accurate stockout cost tracking is a critical, yet often neglected, metric, even for large operations.
  • Quantifiable methods exist to measure lost sales resulting from stockouts, outlined below.
  • Measuring stockout costs enables data-driven inventory decisions based on ROI.
  • Fill rates alone are insufficient for assessing inventory performance, as they disregard lost orders due to part unavailability.

The hidden costs of stockouts

The true cost of a stockout extends far beyond the immediate lost revenue from a single order. The implications are particularly acute, impacting operational efficiency, customer satisfaction, and ultimately, the bottom line.

  • Lost revenue: When critical aircraft parts are out of stock, companies lose immediate sales. For organizations without backorder systems, the demand loss is nearly 100%. Even with backordering, a “spillover effect” occurs, reducing demand. This also costs airlines since aircraft downtime can lead to contractual penalties and fleet disruptions, which are critical in this sector.
  • Order cancellations and returns: If a customer backorders an out-of-stock item, every day they wait increases the chance of cancellation. Most order cancellations occur while a customer waits for an out-of-stock item to ship. Furthermore, return rates are typically much higher than average even among backorders that eventually ship.
  • Increased customer service burden: Every stockout creates additional work for customer service teams, handling calls, emails, and follow-ups. This raises operational costs and diverts resources from proactive tasks like upselling or addressing other client needs. This added overhead directly impacts efficiency.
  • Elevated freight expenses: Stockouts frequently necessitate splitting orders into multiple shipments, particularly when items are unavailable from the same distribution center. This significantly increases freight costs, impacting profitability. If you need expedited shipping for aircarft-on-ground (AOG) scenarios, freight costs go up even more and are much higher than standard freight costs.
  • Damage to brand reputation: Each stockout erodes customer trust. Repeated out-of-stock experiences will cause customers to look elsewhere for their needs, leading to a decline in lifetime value and potentially damaging the organization’s reputation in the industry. This effect extends to airlines as well who lose customers due to grounded airlines and cancellations.

Fill rates: An inadequate metric

Many companies rely heavily on fill rates – the percentage of fulfilled orders from available stock. While relevant, fill rates offer an incomplete picture of inventory performance. They only account for orders actually placed, neglecting the potential orders lost when customers see an “out-of-stock” message and don’t even add the item to their cart. This is particularly relevant for specialized aircraft parts, where customers may quickly move on to alternative suppliers if a part isn’t readily available.

This is why accounting for stockout-related lost sales is so critical. A seemingly acceptable 95% fill rate can mask substantial revenue loss. For example, if sales are 80% lower on out-of-stock days (a spill rate of 80%), that 5% fill rate shortfall represents a much larger loss than initially apparent. For organizations, this translates to extended aircraft downtime, potential contractual penalties, and lost revenue.

While tracking fill rates is important, supplementing this metric with the in-stock rate—the percentage of anticipated demand covered by available inventory at the start of the day—provides a more comprehensive view of inventory performance.

Quantifying stockout costs

Accurately measuring stockout costs requires shifting the focus from fill rates to the spill rate—the percentage of potential sales lost due to part unavailability.

  1. Daily inventory tracking: Implement a system to capture daily snapshots of your inventory positions for every part. This data is crucial because it tells you whether an item was in stock at the beginning of each day. Real-time visibility helps you keep track of stock as it moves in and out. However, many ERPs don’t have such capabilities, and you may need to integrate third-party systems.
  2. Spill rate calculation: Choose a timeframe (e.g., quarterly data spanning approximately 90 days) to compare sales performance when items are in stock versus out of stock. Select items with at least one in-stock day and one out-of-stock day during the analysis period. Compare the average daily sales of these items when in stock versus out of stock. For example, if the average daily sales per item is $500 when in stock and $250 when out of stock, the spill rate is 50%, indicating a loss of half the potential revenue for each day the item is unavailable.
  3. Extrapolating spill rate: Extend this analysis across your entire product line to determine the overall impact of stockouts. Multiply the spill rate by the inverse of your overall, revenue-weighted in-stock rate. For instance, if your annual sales are $100 million, your in-stock rate is 92%, and your spill rate is 50%, you’re losing approximately 4 million in annual sales (100 million * 8% stockout rate * 50%).
  4. Incorporating additional costs: In addition to lost revenue, factor in:
    • Increased cancellation and return rates: Account for the higher likelihood of cancellations and returns on backorder items due to extended lead times.
    • Customer service overhead: Estimate the additional time and cost incurred by your customer service team in handling stockout-related inquiries.
    • Higher freight costs: Calculate the added expense of split shipments when parts are not available from the same location.

ROI-driven inventory management

A key benefit of tracking stockout costs is the shift from vague “inventory improvement” discussions to concrete, ROI-driven analysis. Instead of relying on intuition, organizations gain data-backed justification for inventory investments. For example, if analysis reveals that adding $500,000 in inventory will increase the in-stock rate from 92% to 94%, this could yield approximately $2 million in additional annual sales due to improved parts availability. Considering factors like gross margins and the cost of capital, leaders can make informed decisions about inventory investments, optimizing levels and strategically allocating resources.

Taking action: next steps to minimize stockout costs

Now that you understand the often hidden costs associated with stockouts and the critical importance of ROI-driven inventory management, it’s time to act. Implementing these strategies can transform your inventory from a source of frustration and lost revenue into a driver of profitability and growth.

  • Implement daily inventory tracking: Set up a system to capture daily inventory levels for each part (SKU). Boost your system by adding real-time visibility through a third-party integration, if your ERP doesn’t support it.
  • Track in-stock rate in addition to fill rate: Begin reporting on the in-stock rate of your inventory (the percentage of expected demand you have in stock) to supplement your fill rate data.
  • Determine current stockout costs: For items that regularly experience stockouts, compare sales on in-stock days versus out-of-stock days to calculate your spill rate.
  • Make ROI-based inventory decisions: Use quantifiable financial data and potential ROI calculations to inform inventory decisions, moving away from guesswork.

Optimize your inventory with Hydrian

Hydrian’s inventory optimization services provide aerospace MROs with the expertise and advanced technology necessary to gain control of their inventory and maximize profitability.

We offer a complimentary assessment to analyze your current stockout costs and pinpoint areas for improvement. Our flexible month-to-month service combines cutting-edge machine learning, AI-driven planning, and expert consultation to deliver a demonstrable ROI, typically 5-10 times our fees.

Contact Hydrian today to discover how we can help you transform your inventory into a strategic asset that fuels sustainable growth and operational efficiency.

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